Modelling Measles Re-Emergence as a Result of Waning of Immunity in Vaccinated Populations

Vaccine. 2003 Nov 7;21(31):4597-603. doi: 10.1016/s0264-410x(03)00449-3.

Abstract

An age-structured mathematical model of measles transmission in a vaccinated population is used to simulate the shift from a population whose immunity is derived from natural infection to a population whose immunity is vaccine-induced. The model incorporates waning of immunity in a population of vaccinees that eventually will become susceptible to a milder form of vaccine-modified measles with a lower transmission potential than unvaccinated classical measles. Using current estimates of duration of vaccine-derived protection, measles would not be expected to re-emerge quickly in countries with sustained high routine vaccine coverage. However, re-emergence is possible to occur several decades after introduction of high levels of vaccination. Time until re-emergence depends primarily on the contagiousness of vaccine-modified measles cases in comparison to classical measles. Interestingly, in a population with a high proportion of vaccinees, vaccine-modified measles and classical measles would occur essentially in the same age groups. Although waning of humoral immunity in vaccinees is widely observed, re-emergence of measles in highly vaccinated populations depends on parameters for which better estimates are needed.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Aging / immunology*
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Male
  • Mass Vaccination
  • Measles / epidemiology*
  • Measles / immunology*
  • Measles / transmission
  • Measles Vaccine / immunology
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical
  • Population

Substances

  • Measles Vaccine