This study tested the hypothesis that plasma osmolality and the strong ion difference ([SID]) predict PaCO2 during rest and during exercise in physically active pregnant (n = 22; gestational age 37.0 +/- 0.2 weeks) and nonpregnant (n = 17) women. Nonpregnant subjects were in varying stages of the menstrual cycle. Arterialized blood gases, hydrogen ion concentration, plasma osmolality, [SID], and circulating levels of progesterone were measured at rest and during upright cycling at work rates corresponding to 70 and 110% of the ventilatory threshold. Pooled data from the two groups at rest revealed significant correlations (P < 0.05) between PaCO2 with plasma osmolality, [SID], and progesterone. Progesterone was also significantly correlated with [SID] and osmolality. Also, changes in PaCO2 with exercise correlated significantly with changes in [SID]. The results support the hypothesis that plasma osmolality and [SID] are important factors in the modulation of respiratory sensitivity in healthy women. Also, the effects of progesterone on PaCO2 may be expressed, at least in part, through progesterone-induced changes in [SID] and osmolality.