Purpose: Drug expenditure trends since 2002 and projected drug expenditures for 2004 are discussed.
Summary: In 2002 there was a moderation in the trend of increasing drug expenditures. Drug expenditures increased by 12.3% between 2001 and 2002. This trend continued in the first half of 2003, with expenditures increasing by only 10% compared with 2002. This moderation in the drug expenditures trend can be attributed to many factors, especially patent expirations and decreases in new drug approvals. Higher cost sharing for consumers and a general economic slowdown in the United States affecting employment and insurance coverage have resulted in a smaller increase in drug utilization. In 2004, there should be a 10-12% increase in drug expenditures for outpatient settings, a 19-21% increase for clinics, and a 6-8% increase for hospitals.
Conclusion: Drug expenditure growth should continue to outpace the growth in overall health care expenditures and the growth in the U.S. economy.