Adult cigarette smoking prevalence: declining as expected (not as desired)

Am J Public Health. 2004 Feb;94(2):251-2. doi: 10.2105/ajph.94.2.251.


We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 =.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Health Surveys*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Smoking / epidemiology*
  • Smoking / trends*
  • Smoking Cessation / statistics & numerical data*
  • Smoking Prevention
  • United States / epidemiology