A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission

Vet Res. 2004 Jan-Feb;35(1):53-68. doi: 10.1051/vetres:2003046.

Abstract

In France, the considerable economic losses due to paratuberculosis introduction in cattle herds may justify the development of a herd-level certification procedure. For a cost/benefit analysis purpose, a simple deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission has been developed to evaluate the economic consequences of the purchase of a single infected heifer in a French average herd. The values of the epidemiological parameters were provided by a panel of French paratuberculosis experts. The results were in adequacy with field observations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted. The model was however difficult to validate rigorously, since few data on the intra-herd paratuberculosis true prevalence level are currently available.

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Animal Husbandry / methods
  • Animals
  • Cattle
  • Cattle Diseases / economics
  • Cattle Diseases / epidemiology
  • Cattle Diseases / transmission*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Female
  • France / epidemiology
  • Models, Biological*
  • Paratuberculosis / economics
  • Paratuberculosis / epidemiology
  • Paratuberculosis / transmission*
  • Prevalence
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Stochastic Processes