Would universal antenatal screening for HIV infection be cost-effective in a setting of very low prevalence? Modelling the data for Australia

J Infect Dis. 2004 Jul 1;190(1):166-74. doi: 10.1086/421247. Epub 2004 May 28.

Abstract

Background: The economics of universal antenatal human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) screening should be explored if mother-to-child transmission of HIV occurs, the health-service infrastructure for universal screening exists, and optimal risk-reducing treatments can be supplied.

Methods: We evaluated a hypothetical cohort of the antenatal population of Australia during 2001-2002, to examine whether universal antenatal HIV screening is cost-effective in this setting. A quasi-societal perspective was adopted, secondary data sources were used, and sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Costs and benefits incurred in the future were discounted to their present value.

Results: The intervention would be cost-effective if the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV in the currently unscreened Australian antenatal population was >or=0.004372%. We predict 6.95 new diagnoses of HIV, 1.73 infections avoided, and 46.97 discounted-life-years gained. Applying favorable and unfavorable values for key variables suggests that the prevalence at which the intervention would be cost-effective is 0.0016%-0.0106%.

Conclusions: Universal antenatal HIV screening would be cost-effective at a very low prevalence and would generate net benefits under many scenarios; accurate statistics on the true prevalence of HIV in the currently unscreened antenatal population are required.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Australia / epidemiology
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / diagnosis
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology*
  • HIV Infections / virology
  • Humans
  • Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical
  • Mass Screening / economics*
  • Models, Biological*
  • Pregnancy
  • Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / diagnosis
  • Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / epidemiology*
  • Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / virology
  • Prenatal Diagnosis / economics*
  • Prevalence
  • Value of Life