Models Relating Traffic Safety With Road Environment and Traffic Flows on Arterial Roads in Addis Ababa

Accid Anal Prev. 2004 Sep;36(5):697-704. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2003.05.002.


This paper presents the study carried out to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected on arterial roads in Addis Ababa. Poisson and negative binomial regression methods were used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variables. Significant accident predictive models were found with a number of significant explanatory variables. The results show that the existing inadequate road infrastructure and poor road traffic operations are the potential contributors of this ever-growing challenge of the road transport in Addis Ababa. The results also indicate that improvements in roadway width, pedestrian facilities, and access management are effective in reducing road traffic accidents.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Accidents, Traffic / prevention & control*
  • Accidents, Traffic / statistics & numerical data
  • Binomial Distribution
  • Ethiopia
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Safety