Relative efficacy of criminological, clinical, and personality measures of future risk of offending in mentally disordered offenders: a comparative study of HCR-20, PCL:SV, and OGRS

J Consult Clin Psychol. 2004 Jun;72(3):523-30. doi: 10.1037/0022-006X.72.3.523.


The authors compared the ability of 3 commonly used measures of risk of future offending in a sample of 315 mentally disordered offenders discharged from a medium-secure unit in the United Kingdom. The authors explored whether the same criminogenic factors that predict recidivism in the general population also predict recidivism in mentally disordered offenders. The actuarial measure, using mainly criminological variables, provided the best prediction of recidivism compared with measures based on personality or clinical information, which provided no incremental validity over the actuarial measure. The authors suggest that for maximum efficacy clinical risk should be rated at a time of active symptoms rather than at discharge when symptoms are minimal.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Cohort Studies
  • Crime / statistics & numerical data*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mental Disorders / diagnosis*
  • Mental Disorders / epidemiology*
  • Mental Disorders / psychology
  • Personality Disorders / diagnosis*
  • Personality Disorders / epidemiology*
  • Personality Disorders / psychology
  • Prospective Studies
  • Recurrence
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index