In clinical practice, diagnosis and risk prediction are usually based on the analysis of serum or plasma proteins whereas gene expression analysis is not used on a routine basis. In order to compare the diagnostic and predictive relevance of serum protein and peripheral blood mRNA levels, we determined cytokine levels of end-stage renal failure patients undergoing hemodialysis. These patients face a high mortality mainly due to acceleration of atherosclerosis and subsequent severe vascular events. mRNA expression of the pro-inflammatory cytokine TNF alpha was significantly elevated in hemodialysis patients and further increased after 2 h of dialysis treatment. In contrast, gene expression of the anti-inflammatory cytokine TGF beta was significantly decreased. Patients who died during the observation period of 36 months had significantly increased mRNA levels of TNF alpha and decreased TGF beta mRNA expression at baseline. Survival analysis indicated that increased TNF alpha mRNA levels (P < 0.02) and TNF alpha/TGF beta mRNA ratios (P < 0.001) predict mortality. The corresponding cytokines in serum showed some association with disease, but serum concentrations neither changed during hemodialysis nor predicted mortality. This study shows that gene expression patterns of circulating leukocytes may present an important new diagnostic tool to predict clinical outcome in patients with inflammatory vascular diseases.