Objective: To estimate Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) subsidies for drugs to treat smoking-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 2001-02, and over the period of the government's Intergenerational Report (IGR), assuming current smoking prevalence rates and a 5% absolute reduction.
Design and setting: An Australian epidemiological study, using prescribing data, aetiological fraction methodology, and IGR trends.
Main outcome measures: Estimated smoking-related PBS subsidy costs in 2001-02 and predicted cumulative subsidies until 2041-42, under current and reduced smoking prevalence assumptions.
Results: The PBS costs of smoking-related CVD in 2001-02 were $126 million, 9.77% of the cost of drugs for CVD and 2.96% of total PBS subsidies. The cumulative difference in these costs over the 40-year period with a 5% drop in smoking prevalence was predicted to be $4.5 billion, a 17% reduction. The saving would be $1.14 billion discounting future costs at 5% per year.
Conclusions: Further investment in tobacco control interventions could curb the increasing cost of the PBS and contribute to government efforts to ensure the viability of Australia's healthcare-financing programs. The net present value of a campaign to reduce smoking prevalence was estimated at $1 billion, with an internal rate of return of 33%.