A brief actuarial assessment for the prediction of wife assault recidivism: the Ontario domestic assault risk assessment

Psychol Assess. 2004 Sep;16(3):267-75. doi: 10.1037/1040-3590.16.3.267.


An actuarial assessment to predict male-to-female marital violence was constructed from a pool of potential predictors in a sample of 589 offenders identified in police records and followed up for an average of almost 5 years. Archival information in several domains (offender characteristics, domestic violence history, nondomestic criminal history, relationship characteristics, victim characteristics, index offense) and recidivism were subjected to setwise and stepwise logistic regression. The resulting 13-item scale, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), showed a large effect size in predicting new assaults against legal or common-law wives or ex-wives (Cohen's d = 1.1, relative operating characteristic area =.77) and was associated with number and severity of new assaults and time until recidivism. Cross-validation and comparisons with other instruments are also reported.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Actuarial Analysis
  • Adult
  • Crime / psychology
  • Crime / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Personality Assessment / statistics & numerical data
  • Psychometrics / statistics & numerical data
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment / statistics & numerical data*
  • Secondary Prevention
  • Social Support
  • Spouse Abuse / legislation & jurisprudence
  • Spouse Abuse / prevention & control
  • Spouse Abuse / statistics & numerical data*
  • Statistics as Topic
  • Substance-Related Disorders / epidemiology
  • Substance-Related Disorders / psychology
  • Violence / psychology
  • Violence / statistics & numerical data