Background: To decide on screening strategies and curative treatments for prostate carcinoma, it is necessary to determine the incidence and survival in a population that is not screened.
Methods: The 15-year projected survival data were analyzed from a prospective, complete, population-based registry of 8887 patients with newly diagnosed prostate carcinoma from 1987 to 1999.
Results: The median patient age at diagnosis was 75 years (range, 40-96 years), and 12% of patients were diagnosed before the age 65 years. The median follow-up was 80 months for patients who remained alive. In total, 5873 of 8887 patients (66.1%) had died, and 2595 of those patients (44.2%) died directly due to prostate carcinoma. The overall median age at death was 80 years (range, 41-100 years). The projected 15-year disease-specific survival rate was 44% for the whole population. In total, 18% of patients had metastases at diagnosis (M1), and their median survival was 2.5 years. Patients with nonmetastatic T1-T3 prostate carcinoma (age < 75 years at diagnosis; n=2098 patients) had a 15-year projected disease-specific survival rate of 66%. Patients who underwent radical prostatectomy had a significantly lower risk of dying from prostate carcinoma (relative risk, 0.40) compared with patients who were treated with noncurative therapies or radiotherapy.
Conclusions: The disease-specific mortality was comparatively high, but it took 15 years to reach a disease-specific mortality rate of 56%. These data form a truly population-based baseline on how prostate carcinoma will affect a population when screening is not applied and can be used for comparison with other health care strategies.
2005 American Cancer Society.