Long-term outcome of chronic drug use: the Amsterdam Cohort Study among Drug Users

Am J Epidemiol. 2005 Feb 1;161(3):271-9. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwi035.

Abstract

In the present study, mortality rates and prevalence of abstinence from illicit drugs among persons with a history of addiction to heroin, cocaine, and/or amphetamines were estimated along the drug-using career time scale. Follow-up data on drug use and vital status were analyzed for participants in the Amsterdam Cohort Study among Drug Users (n = 899; 1985-2002). Participants in the study were primarily recruited at low-threshold methadone outposts. It was estimated that at least 27% of drug users had died within 20 years after starting regular drug use; for half, death had been due to causes unrelated to human immunodeficiency virus. A favorable trend towards abstinence with increasing time since initiation of regular use was observed. However, among those alive, the estimated prevalence of abstinence for at least 4 months from the above drugs and methadone was only 27% at 20 years since initiation. A higher age at initiation, a calendar year of initiation before 1980, and a Western European ethnic origin were associated with higher prevalence of abstinence. These results indicate that the concept of "maturing out" to a drug-free state does not apply to the majority of drug users. Further studies on determinants of individual transitions in drug use are important in order to establish evidence-based intervention strategies.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Cause of Death
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / complications
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Netherlands / epidemiology
  • Prevalence
  • Risk Factors
  • Substance-Related Disorders / complications*
  • Substance-Related Disorders / mortality*
  • Substance-Related Disorders / rehabilitation
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Survival Analysis