Model uncertainty and risk estimation for experimental studies of quantal responses

Risk Anal. 2005 Apr;25(2):291-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00590.x.

Abstract

Experimental animal studies often serve as the basis for predicting risk of adverse responses in humans exposed to occupational hazards. A statistical model is applied to exposure-response data and this fitted model may be used to obtain estimates of the exposure associated with a specified level of adverse response. Unfortunately, a number of different statistical models are candidates for fitting the data and may result in wide ranging estimates of risk. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a strategy for addressing uncertainty in the selection of statistical models when generating risk estimates. This strategy is illustrated with two examples: applying the multistage model to cancer responses and a second example where different quantal models are fit to kidney lesion data. BMA provides excess risk estimates or benchmark dose estimates that reflects model uncertainty.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Biomedical Research / methods
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Disease Models, Animal
  • Dose-Response Relationship, Drug
  • Ethylene Glycol / adverse effects
  • Humans
  • Kidney Tubules / drug effects
  • Lymphoma / pathology
  • Mice
  • Models, Statistical
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Neoplasms / pathology
  • Occupational Exposure*
  • Probability
  • Rats
  • Risk
  • Risk Assessment*

Substances

  • Ethylene Glycol