Identifying pediatric age groups for influenza vaccination using a real-time regional surveillance system

Am J Epidemiol. 2005 Oct 1;162(7):686-93. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwi257. Epub 2005 Aug 17.


Evidence is accumulating that universal vaccination of schoolchildren would reduce the transmission of influenza. The authors sought to identify target age groups within the pediatric population that develop influenza the earliest and are most strongly linked with mortality in the population. Patient visits for respiratory illness were monitored, using real-time syndromic surveillance systems, in six Massachusetts health-care settings, including ambulatory care sites and emergency departments at tertiary-care and community hospitals. Visits from January 1, 2000, to September 30, 2004, were segmented into age group subpopulations. Timeliness and prediction of each subpopulation were measured against pneumonia and influenza mortality in New England with time-series analyses and regression models. Study results show that patient age significantly influences timeliness (p = 0.026), with pediatric age groups arriving first (p < 0.001); children aged 3-4 years are consistently the earliest (p = 0.0058). Age also influences the degree of prediction of mortality (p = 0.036), with illness among children under age 5 years, compared with all other patients, most strongly associated with mortality (p < 0.001). Study findings add to a growing body of support for a strategy to vaccinate children older than the currently targeted age of 6-23 months and specifically suggest that there may be value in vaccinating preschool-age children.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Analysis of Variance
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Fourier Analysis
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Influenza Vaccines / administration & dosage*
  • Influenza, Human / mortality*
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control*
  • Mass Vaccination*
  • Massachusetts / epidemiology
  • Middle Aged
  • Population Surveillance
  • Regression Analysis
  • Retrospective Studies


  • Influenza Vaccines