Objective: Trends in the metabolic syndrome might follow trends in obesity. We examined this hypothesis in the Mexico City Diabetes Study (MCDS), a study that showed rising trends in obesity, and the effect of the metabolic syndrome on the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD).
Research design and methods: Designed as a population-based study, the MCDS enrolled subjects in 1990-1992 (n = 2,282). Follow-up visits were held in 1993-1995 (n = 1,764) and 1997-1999 (n = 1,754). We used the revised metabolic syndrome definition of the National Cholesterol Education Program and the Framingham equations to estimate the 10-year CHD risk.
Results: In men, the age-adjusted prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 38.9% in 1990-1992, 43.4% in 1993-1995, and 39.9% in 1997-1999; in women, the prevalences were 65.4, 65.7, and 59.9%, respectively. The prevalence did not change in men (P = 0.349) between 1990-1992 and 1997-1999, but decreased in women (P < 0.001). A prevalence increase was demonstrated for elevated waist circumference (men, P < 0.001; women, P < 0.050), elevated fasting glucose value (men and women, P < 0.001), and low HDL cholesterol level (men, P < 0.050; women, P < 0.010); a prevalence decrease was seen for high blood pressure (men and women, P < 0.001) and hypertriglyceridemia (men, P < 0.001; women, P < 0.010). CHD risk decreased marginally in men (P < 0.050) but did not change in women (P = 0.943).
Conclusions: Neither the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome nor CHD risk has increased in Mexico City. Lower blood pressure and triglyceride values appear to have counteracted increases in central obesity and fasting glucose.