A population model of prostate cancer incidence

Stat Med. 2006 Aug 30;25(16):2846-66. doi: 10.1002/sim.2257.


Introduction of screening for prostate cancer using the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) marker of the disease led to remarkable dynamics of the incidence of the disease observed in the last two decades. A statistical model is used to provide a link between dissemination of PSA and the observed transient population responses. The model is used to estimate lead time, overdiagnosis and other relevant characteristics of prostate cancer screening.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Age of Onset
  • Aged
  • Biometry
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mass Screening / statistics & numerical data
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Population
  • Prostate-Specific Antigen / blood
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / blood
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • SEER Program
  • Time Factors
  • United States / epidemiology


  • Prostate-Specific Antigen