Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS

Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Oct;134(5):1092-101. doi: 10.1017/S0950268806005863. Epub 2006 Feb 14.

Abstract

Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3-23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2-17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.

Publication types

  • Evaluation Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Australia / epidemiology
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control*
  • Humans
  • Mass Screening / organization & administration*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / epidemiology
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / prevention & control*
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus / isolation & purification
  • Travel*