Predictive indices of morbidity and mortality after liver resection

Ann Surg. 2006 Mar;243(3):373-9. doi: 10.1097/01.sla.0000201483.95911.08.


Objective: To determine if use of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores to elective resections accurately predicts short-term morbidity or mortality.

Summary background data: MELD scores have been validated in the setting of end-stage liver disease for patients awaiting transplantation or undergoing transvenous intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures. Its use in predicting outcomes after elective hepatic resection has not been evaluated.

Methods: Records of 587 patients who underwent elective hepatic resection and were included in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Database were reviewed. MELD score, CTP score, Charlson Index of Comorbidity, American Society of Anesthesiology classification, and age were evaluated for their ability to predict short-term morbidity and mortality. Morbidity was defined as the development of one or more of the following complications: pulmonary edema or embolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, renal failure or insufficiency, pneumonia, deep venous thrombosis, bleeding, deep wound infection, reoperation, or hyperbilirubinemia. The analysis was repeated with patients divided according to their procedure and their primary diagnosis. Parametric or nonparametric analyses were performed as appropriate. Also, a new index was developed by dividing the patients into a development and a validation cohort, to predict morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing elective hepatic resection. ROC curves were also constructed for each of the primary indices.

Results: CTP and ASA scores were superior in predicting outcome. Also, patients undergoing resection of primary malignancies had a higher rate of mortality but no difference in morbidity.

Conclusion: MELD scores should not be used to predict outcomes in the setting of elective hepatic resection.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Elective Surgical Procedures / methods
  • Elective Surgical Procedures / mortality
  • Female
  • Hepatectomy / mortality*
  • Humans
  • Liver Failure / mortality
  • Liver Failure / surgery
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prognosis
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Rate / trends
  • United States / epidemiology