Prediction of pelvic inflammatory disease among young, single, sexually active women

Sex Transm Dis. 2006 Mar;33(3):137-42. doi: 10.1097/01.olq.0000187205.67390.d1.


Objectives: To assess prediction strategies for pelvic inflammatory disease (PID).

Study design: One thousand one hundred seventy women were enrolled based on a high chlamydial risk score. Incident PID over a median of 3 years was diagnosed by either histologic endometritis or Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. A multivariable prediction model for PID was assessed.

Results: Women enrolled using the risk score were young, single, sexually active, and often had prior sexually transmitted infections. Incident PID was common (8.6%). From 24 potential predictors, significant factors included age at first sex, gonococcal/chlamydial cervicitis, history of PID, family income, smoking, medroxyprogesterone acetate use, and sex with menses. The model correctly predicted 74% of incident PID; in validation models, correct prediction was only 69%.

Conclusions: Our data validate a modified chlamydial risk factor scoring system for prediction of PID. Additional multivariable modeling contributed little to prediction. Women identified by a threshold value on the chlamydial risk score should undergo intensive education and screening.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Chlamydia Infections / diagnosis
  • Chlamydia Infections / microbiology*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Pelvic Inflammatory Disease / diagnosis*
  • Pelvic Inflammatory Disease / microbiology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Factors
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Sexual Behavior
  • Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Bacterial / diagnosis
  • Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Bacterial / microbiology*