Background: Costs of health services for hypertension and the financial consequences of epidemiologic changes in this disease are important concerns for health systems in Latin America.
Methods: We conducted longitudinal analyses of the economic impact of the epidemiologic changes on health care services for hypertension in the Mexican health care system. The cost evaluation method used was based on costing technique by production function and consensus techniques. To estimate the epidemiologic changes and financial consequences for the period 2005 to 2007, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique.
Results: If changes are not implemented in prevention programs to reduce the effects of current risk factors, there will be increases in the number of patients with hypertension as well as in the financial burden to treat the disease. The amount allocated for hypertension in 2007, which will be 6% to 8% of the total health budget, is US$ 2,486,145,132. Of these, US$ 1,178,725,132 will be direct costs and US$ 1,307,420,000 will be indirect costs. Regarding epidemiologic changes for 2005 v 2007 (P < .05), an increase is expected, although results show a greater increase in insured populations.
Conclusions: If the risk factors and different health programs remain as they currently are, the economic impact of expected epidemiologic changes on the social security system will be particularly strong. Another relevant financial factor is the appearance of internal competition in the allocation of financial resources among the main providers of health services for hypertension; this factor becomes even more complicated within each provider.