Introduction: Efforts to develop global methods for absolute fracture risk prediction are currently limited by uncertainty over the validity of these models in non-White populations. Aboriginal Canadians have higher fractures rates than non-Aboriginals. This analysis examined the interaction of ethnicity with diabetes mellitus, disease comorbidity and substance abuse as possible explanatory variables.
Methods: A retrospective, population-based matched cohort study of fracture rates was performed using Manitoba administrative health data (1984-2003). The study cohort consisted of 27,952 registered Aboriginal adults (aged 20 years or older) and 83,856 non-Aboriginal controls (matched three to one for year of birth and gender). Diabetes mellitus, number of ambulatory disease groups (ADGs), substance abuse and incident fractures were based upon validated definitions. Poisson regression analyses of fracture rates modelled the explanatory variables as main effects and two-way interactions with ethnicity.
Results: Osteoporotic fracture rates were approximately twofold higher in the Aboriginal cohort (p<0.0001). Diabetes, greater number of ADGs and substance abuse were all more common in the Aboriginal cohort (all p<0.0001). These factors were associated with increased fracture rates (all p<0.0001) and significantly higher population attributable risk percent in the Aboriginal cohort (all p<0.0001). However, no significant interactions between the risk factors and ethnicity were observed (p>0.1 for all interaction effects).
Conclusion: Greater prevalence of diabetes, comorbidity and substance abuse contributes to higher rates of fracture. The relative risk of fracture for these factors is similar for both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginals despite large differences in absolute fracture risk and risk factor prevalence.