Geographic potential for outbreaks of Marburg hemorrhagic fever

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2006 Jul;75(1):9-15. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.1.0750009.

Abstract

Marburg virus represents one of the least well-known of the hemorrhagic fever-causing viruses worldwide; in particular, its geographic potential in Africa remains quite mysterious. Ecologic niche modeling was used to explore the geographic and ecologic potential of Marburg virus in Africa. Model results permitted a reinterpretation of the geographic point of infection in the initiation of the 1975 cases in Zimbabwe, and also anticipated the potential for cases in Angola, where a large outbreak recently (2004-2005) occurred. The geographic potential for additional outbreaks is outlined, including in several countries in which the virus is not known. Overall, results demonstrate that ecologic niche modeling can be a powerful tool in understanding geographic distributions of species and other biologic phenomena such as zoonotic disease transmission from natural reservoir populations.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Angola / epidemiology
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Ecology
  • Geography
  • Humans
  • Marburg Virus Disease / epidemiology*
  • Marburg Virus Disease / transmission*
  • Marburg Virus Disease / virology
  • Marburgvirus / physiology
  • Models, Biological*
  • Risk Factors
  • Zimbabwe / epidemiology