Preoperative prediction of long-term outcome in poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

Neurosurgery. 2006 Sep;59(3):529-38; discussion 529-38. doi: 10.1227/01.NEU.0000228680.22550.A2.


Objective: To evaluate which presentation indices, demographics, and clinical information predict 12-month outcome in poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and to provide a preoperative index of prognosis.

Methods: Data were obtained on all patients with poor-grade (Hunt and Hess Grades IV and V) aneurysmal SAH from a prospectively maintained SAH database and health outcomes project. Demographics, medical history, presenting clinical condition, and health outcomes were analyzed. Survival analysis was performed and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify significant predictors of poor outcome at 12 months after hemorrhage, as measured by the modified Rankin disability scale.

Results: Survival curves for open surgery and endovascular treatment did not differ significantly. Overall, 40% of the 98 definitively treated patients had a favorable outcome at 12 months. Multivariable analysis identified patient age older than 65 years (P < 0.001), hyperglycemia (P < 0.03), worst preoperative Hunt and Hess Grade V (P < 0.0001), and aneurysm size of at least 13 mm (P < 0.002) as significant predictors of poor outcome. These variables were weighted and used to compute a poor-grade aneurysmal SAH Prognosis Score (hereafter, Prognosis Score) for each patient. A Prognosis Score of 0 was associated with a 90% favorable outcome; Prognosis Score of 1 with 83%; Prognosis Score of 2 with 43%; Prognosis Score of 3 with 8%; Prognosis Score of 4 with 7%; and a Prognosis Score of 5 with 0%.

Conclusion: Outcome in poor-grade aneurysmal SAH is strongly predicted by patient age, worst preoperative Hunt and Hess clinical grade, and aneurysm size. Hyperglycemia on admission after poor-grade aneurysmal SAH increases the likelihood of poor outcome, and is a potentially modifiable risk factor. The Prognosis Score is a useful tool for preoperatively assessing the likelihood of a favorable outcome for poor-grade aneurysmal SAH patients.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / diagnosis
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / epidemiology*
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / therapy
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Preoperative Care*
  • Subarachnoid Hemorrhage / diagnosis
  • Subarachnoid Hemorrhage / epidemiology*
  • Subarachnoid Hemorrhage / therapy
  • Survival Analysis
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome