Risk assessment chart for death from cardiovascular disease based on a 19-year follow-up study of a Japanese representative population

Circ J. 2006 Oct;70(10):1249-55. doi: 10.1253/circj.70.1249.


Background: Based on the NIPPON DATA80, risk charts for the probability of death from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and all cardiovascular disease (CVD) were constructed by sex and 10-year age groups.

Methods and results: The 9,638 participants were followed-up for 19 years from 1980, excluding 28 individuals without the necessary baseline data and 257 participants with past history of stroke or CHD. Final analysis was performed on 9,353 participants (4,098 men, mean age 50.3 years; 5,255 women, mean age 50.8) using a Cox proportional hazards model. Death probabilities over a 10-year period from CHD, stroke, and all CVD were calculated and displayed as color coding on each chart by combining 10-year age, systolic blood pressure, smoking, and serum total cholesterol and glucose levels. Six different colors corresponding to probabilities of death were displayed on each chart.

Conclusions: The original charts based on the findings from NIPPON DATA80 are suitable for assessing CHD, stroke, and all CVD death risk in the general Japanese population. These charts should be used as a health-education tool for lifestyle modification targeting individuals with CVD risk factors.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Blood Glucose
  • Blood Pressure
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / epidemiology
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / mortality*
  • Cholesterol / blood
  • Coronary Disease / epidemiology
  • Coronary Disease / mortality
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality
  • Probability
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Reduction Behavior
  • Sex Distribution
  • Smoking


  • Blood Glucose
  • Cholesterol