Modeling future changes to the meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program in England and Wales

Hum Vaccin. Mar-Apr 2006;2(2):68-73. doi: 10.4161/hv.2.2.2611. Epub 2006 Mar 14.

Abstract

The UK meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program has successfully controlled serogroup C disease, due to high vaccine effectiveness and substantial herd immunity. However, children immunised at 2, 3 and 4 months of age receive only short-term direct protection and may be at risk of disease 15 months after vaccination. To investigate this we applied a mathematical model to predict the future epidemiology of serogroup C disease, with and without changes to the immunization schedule. Only a few cases of serogroup C disease were predicted to occur over the next few years because of persisting herd immunity, even without a change to the vaccine schedule. The inclusion of a booster dose is likely to improve the impact of the MCC program and reducing the number of doses in infancy will improve cost-effectiveness and create space in the schedule for the addition of other vaccines.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Algorithms
  • Carrier State / epidemiology
  • Carrier State / immunology
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • England / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Immunity, Herd
  • Immunization Schedule
  • Male
  • Meningococcal Infections / epidemiology
  • Meningococcal Infections / immunology*
  • Meningococcal Infections / prevention & control*
  • Meningococcal Vaccines / economics
  • Meningococcal Vaccines / immunology*
  • Models, Statistical
  • Neisseria lactamica / immunology
  • Vaccines, Conjugate / economics
  • Vaccines, Conjugate / immunology
  • Wales / epidemiology

Substances

  • Meningococcal Vaccines
  • Vaccines, Conjugate