Timing and risk factors for clinical fractures among postmenopausal women: a 5-year prospective study

BMC Med. 2006 Oct 9;4:24. doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-4-24.

Abstract

Background: Many risk factors for fractures have been documented, including low bone-mineral density (BMD) and a history of fractures. However, little is known about the short-term absolute risk (AR) of fractures and the timing of clinical fractures. Therefore, we assessed the risk and timing of incident clinical fractures, expressed as 5-year AR, in postmenopausal women.

Methods: In total, 10 general practice centres participated in this population-based prospective study. Five years after a baseline assessment, which included clinical risk factor evaluation and BMD measurement, 759 postmenopausal women aged between 50 and 80 years, were re-examined, including undergoing an evaluation of clinical fractures after menopause. Risk factors for incident fractures at baseline that were significant in univariate analyses were included in a multivariate Cox survival regression analysis. The significant determinants were used to construct algorithms.

Results: In the total group, 12.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 10.1-14.9) of the women experienced a new clinical fracture. A previous clinical fracture after menopause and a low BMD (T-score <-1.0) were retained as significant predictors with significant interaction. Women with a recent previous fracture (during the past 5 years) had an AR of 50.1% (95% CI 42.0-58.1) versus 21.2% (95% CI 20.7-21.6) if the previous fracture had occurred earlier. In women without a fracture history, the AR was 13.8% (95% CI 10.9-16.6) if BMD was low and 7.0% (95% CI 5.5-8.5) if BMD was normal.

Conclusion: In postmenopausal women, clinical fractures cluster in time. One in two women with a recent clinical fracture had a new clinical fracture within 5 years, regardless of BMD. The 5-year AR for a first clinical fracture was much lower and depended on BMD.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Bone Density*
  • Calcium / administration & dosage
  • Coffee
  • Female
  • Fractures, Bone / epidemiology*
  • Fractures, Bone / etiology
  • Humans
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal / complications*
  • Postmenopause
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Recurrence
  • Risk Factors
  • Smoking
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Time Factors

Substances

  • Coffee
  • Calcium