FluSurge--a tool to estimate demand for hospital services during the next pandemic influenza

Med Decis Making. Nov-Dec 2006;26(6):617-23. doi: 10.1177/0272989X06295359.


Purpose: To assess the impact of pandemic influenza on hospital services.

Methods: Based on census data and estimates of hospital resources (non-ICU [intensive care unit] beds, ICU beds, and mechanical ventilators) in a given area, FluSurge software estimates the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to pandemic influenza under variable duration and virulence scenarios and compares hospital resources needed during a pandemic with existing hospital resources.

Results: Sample results from Metropolitan Atlanta illustrate how the next influenza pandemic may overwhelm existing hospital resources, given that hospitals increasingly operate at nearly full capacity.

Conclusions: Hospitals need to consider and plan for a surge in demand for hospital services during the next influenza pandemic.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Decision Making, Computer-Assisted
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Female
  • Health Resources / supply & distribution
  • Hospital Bed Capacity / statistics & numerical data
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / mortality
  • Intensive Care Units / supply & distribution
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Needs Assessment / statistics & numerical data*
  • South Carolina
  • Urban Population / statistics & numerical data
  • Ventilators, Mechanical / supply & distribution