Risk factors for chronic kidney disease in a community-based population: a 10-year follow-up study

Kidney Int. 2007 Jan;71(2):159-66. doi: 10.1038/sj.ki.5002017. Epub 2006 Nov 22.


The purpose of this study was to explore risk factors affecting the incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in general population. We conducted a 10-year follow-up study with 123 764 (male: 41 012, female: 82 752) adults aged 40 years and over who received community-based annual examinations. The primary outcome for the analysis was the development of CKD during the follow-up period. Predictors for the development of CKD were obtained by the significant hazard ratios (HR) in Cox regression model by sex. During the follow-up period, 4307 subjects (male: 2048, female: 2259) developed CKD stage I or II, and 19 411 subjects (male: 4257, female: 15 154) developed CKD stage III or higher. The baseline-adjusted predictor of developing CKD included age, glomerular filtration rate, hematuria, hypertension, diabetes, serum lipids, obesity, smoking status, and consumption of alcohol. Treated diabetes in male subjects, and treated hypertension, systolic blood pressure >160 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure >100 mm Hg, diabetes, and treated diabetes in female subjects were associated with more than a doubling of the HR. For the development of CKD stage III or higher, proteinuria of >or= + +, and proteinuria and hematuria were associated with more than a doubling of the HR in male subjects. The prevalence of newly developed CKD over 10 years was 23 718 subjects (19.2%) in adults. This study suggested that not only hypertension and diabetes but also several metabolic abnormalities were independent risk factors for developing CKD.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Diabetes Mellitus / diagnosis
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Hypertension / diagnosis
  • Incidence
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / epidemiology*
  • Male
  • Metabolic Diseases / diagnosis
  • Middle Aged
  • Population
  • Prevalence
  • Residence Characteristics
  • Risk Factors