Development and consideration of global policies for managing the future risks of poliovirus outbreaks: insights and lessons learned through modeling

Risk Anal. 2006 Dec;26(6):1571-80. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00841.x.


The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S.
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Global Health
  • Health Policy
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs / economics*
  • Immunization Programs / methods
  • International Cooperation
  • Mass Vaccination
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Poliomyelitis / epidemiology*
  • Poliomyelitis / prevention & control*
  • Public Health
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Management / methods*
  • United States