Survival of invasive breast cancer according to the Nottingham Prognostic Index in cases diagnosed in 1990-1999

Eur J Cancer. 2007 Jul;43(10):1548-55. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2007.01.016. Epub 2007 Feb 26.


The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) is a well established and widely used method of predicting survival of operable primary breast cancer.

Aims: Primary: To present the updated survival figures for each NPI Group. Secondary: From the observations to suggest reasons for the reported fall in mortality from breast cancer.

Methods: The NPI is compiled from grade, size and lymph node status of the primary tumour. Consecutive cases diagnosed and treated at Nottingham City Hospital in 1980-1986 (n=892) and 1990-1999 (n=2,238) are compared. Changes in protocols towards earlier diagnosis and better case management were made in the late 1980s between the two data sets.

Results: Case survival (Breast Cancer Specific) at 10 years has improved overall from 55% to 77%. Within all Prognostic groups there are high relative and absolute risk reductions. The distribution of cases to Prognostic groups shows only a small increase in the numbers in better groups.

Conclusion: The updated survival figures overall and for each Prognostic group for the NPI are presented.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Breast Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Breast Neoplasms / therapy
  • Cause of Death
  • Female
  • Health Status Indicators
  • Humans
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality / trends
  • Prognosis
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Survival Analysis
  • Survival Rate