Background: Adverse incidents (violence, self-harm and absconding) can cause significant harm to patients and staff, are difficult to predict, and are driving an increase in security measures and defensive practice.
Aims: To explore the relationship between adverse incidents on acute psychiatric wards, admissions and nursing workforce variables.
Methods: A retrospective analysis of officially collected data covering a period of 30 months on 14 acute wards at three hospitals. This data included 69 serious untoward incidents.
Results: Adverse incidents were more likely during and after weeks of high numbers of male admissions, during weeks when other incidents also occurred, and during weeks of high regular staff absence through leave and vacancy.
Conclusions: It may be possible to predict adverse incidents. Careful staff management and deployment may reduce the risks.