Background: Bronchiectasis is a common disabling but rarely fatal disease. However the long-term prognosis and risk factors for mortality are not well known.
Objective: The aim of this study was to determine prospectively the survival and predictive factors of mortality in patients with bronchiectasis, during 4-year follow-up.
Patients and methods: From September 2000 to January 2005 survival of bronchiectasis (as evaluated by computed tomography) and predictors of mortality were assessed in 98 outpatients. Fifty-one of the patients had self-reported history of pulmonary infection including tuberculosis. Baseline data, reevaluated in every single year according to scheduled visits.
Results: The mean age was 61+/-10 and 74% of the patients were female. In total, 16 patients (16.3%) died; mean survival time was 44.06+/-1.6 months. The survival rates were 97%, 89%, 76%, 58% at 1, 2, 3 and 4 years, respectively. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that long-term mortality was significantly associated with age, body mass index (BMI), Medical Research Council (MRC) dyspnea scale, vaccination, radiographic extent, hypoxemia, hypercapnia and functional parameters. However, MRC and BMI had more significant effects on the mortality than the functional parameters.
Conclusions: These results suggest that high BMI, regular vaccination and scheduled visits may have beneficial effects on the survival of bronchiectasis. Besides, presence of hypoxemia, hypercapnia, dyspnea level and radiographic extent were more closely correlated with mortality.