Modeling the long-term antibody response of a human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like particle (VLP) type 16 prophylactic vaccine

Vaccine. 2007 May 22;25(21):4324-33. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2007.02.069. Epub 2007 Mar 12.


The duration over which antibody responses persist following HPV vaccination is unknown. To estimate the longevity of responses induced by HPV-16 vaccination, two models were fitted to serum anti-HPV-16 levels measured during a 48-month study period. The first was a conventional model of antibody decay and the second was a modified model that accounts for long-lived immune memory. Using the antibody decay model, it was estimated that following administration of a three-dose regimen of HPV-16 vaccine in women aged 16-23 years, anti-HPV-16 levels will remain above those induced naturally by HPV-16 infection for 12 years, and above detectable levels for 32 years in 50% of vaccinees. With the modified model, which fitted the data better (p<0.001), it was estimated that near life-long persistence of anti-HPV-16 following vaccination is expected at titer levels above those associated with reduction of natural HPV-16 infection in 76% of these subjects, and above detectable levels in 99% of these subjects.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Antibodies, Viral / blood*
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Human papillomavirus 16 / immunology*
  • Humans
  • Models, Immunological*
  • Papillomavirus Infections / immunology
  • Papillomavirus Infections / prevention & control*
  • Papillomavirus Vaccines / immunology*
  • Time Factors
  • Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / immunology
  • Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / prevention & control*
  • Vaccines, Virosome / immunology*


  • Antibodies, Viral
  • Papillomavirus Vaccines
  • Vaccines, Virosome