The aim of this study was to evaluate the cardiovascular (CV) risk due to the metabolic syndrome in a 15-year prospective study of a Sicilian population. In the Mediterranean area obesity is highly prevalent, but epidemiological data on the metabolic syndrome are limited.
Methods and results: Among the 1351 subjects enrolled in the "Ventimiglia di Sicilia" epidemiological project, we selected 687 subjects between 35 and 75 years of age; baseline parameters were assessed and subjects have been followed for 15 years recording CV events, total and cardiovascular mortality. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to both the Adult Treatment Panel III and the International Diabetes Federation criteria. Metabolic syndrome (ATPIII criteria) was significantly (p<0.00001) more prevalent in women (31.5%) than in men (12.4%). The metabolic syndrome increased the risk of CV events with a hazard ratio of 1.9 (confidence interval CI; 1.46-2.46). Using a Cox proportional hazards estimation model, the survival curve of subjects with metabolic syndrome and normal fasting glucose did not significantly differ from the curve of subjects with metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose (IFG).
Conclusions: In a 15-year follow-up the metabolic syndrome is predictive of CV events regardless of the presence of IFG or diabetes mellitus.