Background: Evidence from experimental models and clinical studies supports a major role for transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1) in renal fibrosis. The aim of this study was to use repeated measurement of plasma TGF-beta1 as an indicator of persistent expression in a cohort of patients during the first 2 years post-renal transplantation and to correlate the findings with the development of chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN).
Methods: Active plasma TGF-beta1 was quantified in 100 consecutive renal allograft recipients (samples/patient = 35.6 +/- 12.9) under standard clinical management for a mean of 23 months (range 3.4-45 months). All patients were followed up for a minimum of 5 years.
Results: By 5 years, 23 patients had developed biopsy-proven CAN (CAN+), all of whom had been positive for plasma TGF-beta1. Demographic data were compared between patients who were CAN+ and CAN-negative (CAN-) and were not significantly different. TGF-beta1 exposure expressed as area under the curve / day (AUC/day) was correlated with the incidence of CAN. A Cox regression model was used to investigate the interrelationship of CAN, acute cellular rejection (ACR) and TGF-beta1 levels. ACR episodes were predictive of the development of CAN (log-rank test, p=0.003). After allowing for the effect of ACR (hazard ratio [HR]=3.6; 95% confidence ratio [95% CI], 1.5-8.7) between patients with and without ACR episodes, p=0.003), the independent effect of TGF-beta1 was confirmed (HR=1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.6; per quartile; p=0.008).
Conclusion: The results demonstrate that episodes of ACR are highly predictive of chronic damage in the graft. Cumulative exposure to TGF-beta1 is identified as an independent predictor of CAN in the first 2 years posttransplantation.