The impact of an AIDS vaccine in developing countries: a new model and initial results

Health Aff (Millwood). 2007 Jul-Aug;26(4):1147-58. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.26.4.1147.


A new model was developed to examine the potential impacts of an AIDS vaccine in developing countries. The findings suggest that even a modestly efficacious first-generation vaccine could have a profound effect on the AIDS pandemic. A vaccine with 50 percent efficacy provided to 30 percent of the population would reduce new annual infections by 34 percent (seventeen million infections avoided) over fifteen years and result in substantial financial savings. A more efficacious vaccine, combined with expanded delivery, would do even more to control the pandemic. It therefore makes sense to continue investing in AIDS vaccine research and development and the eventual manufacture and widespread distribution of a vaccine.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • AIDS Vaccines / economics
  • AIDS Vaccines / pharmacology*
  • AIDS Vaccines / supply & distribution
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Developing Countries* / economics
  • Disease Susceptibility
  • Drug Evaluation / methods*
  • Drug Evaluation / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • HIV Infections / prevention & control*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Patient Selection
  • Probability
  • Research Support as Topic
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Risk-Taking
  • Sexual Behavior / classification
  • Substance Abuse, Intravenous


  • AIDS Vaccines