We evaluated the effectiveness and the efficacy of population-based mammography programme in Finland, and explored associations between the screening performance and the screening efficacy. The main outcome, incidence-based mortality from breast cancer, was estimated by invitation, participation, age at death, and screening centres categorised by recall rates. The study was based on an individual followup of screening invitees and participants from 1992 to 2003. The coverage of screening invitations was 95% among 50-59 years old women, and 20-40% among women aged 60-69 years. We compared observed deaths from breast cancer to expected breast cancer deaths without screening in ages 50-69 at death. The observed deaths were obtained from a cohort of individual invitees (n = 361,848). The expected deaths were defined by modelling breast cancer mortality from 1974 to 1985 and 1992 to 2003 at population level. The population data were derived from the same municipalities (n = 260) that were incorporated into the cohort. The breast cancer mortality among the invited women was reduced by 22% (relative risk 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.70-0.87). After adjusting for the self-selection, the efficacy among the participants was 28% (0.72,0.56-0.88). No clear association between the recall rates and the screening efficacy was observed. The organised mammography screening in Finland is effective. The relationship between the estimates of process and outcome of mammography is not yet straightforward: effectiveness and efficacy remain the best estimates for evaluating the success of mammography screening.
(c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.