The separation of timescales in Bayesian survival modeling of the time-varying effect of a time-dependent exposure

Biostatistics. 2008 Jul;9(3):400-10. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxm038. Epub 2007 Nov 19.

Abstract

In this paper, we apply flexible Bayesian survival analysis methods to investigate the risk of lymphoma associated with kidney transplantation among patients with end-stage renal disease. Of key interest is the potentially time-varying effect of a time-dependent exposure: transplant status. Bayesian modeling of the baseline hazard and the effect of transplant requires consideration of 2 timescales: time since study start and time since transplantation, respectively. Previous related work has not dealt with the separation of multiple timescales. Using a hierarchical model for the hazard function, both timescales are incorporated via conditionally independent stochastic processes; smoothing of each process is specified via intrinsic conditional Gaussian autoregressions. Features of the corresponding posterior distribution are evaluated from draws obtained via a Metropolis-Hastings-Green algorithm.

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem*
  • Biometry / methods
  • Graft Rejection / mortality
  • Graft Survival
  • Humans
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / surgery
  • Kidney Transplantation / pathology
  • Lymphoma / etiology
  • Lymphoma / mortality*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Postoperative Complications / physiopathology*
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Survival Analysis*
  • Survival Rate
  • Time*