Does the H index have predictive power?

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Dec 4;104(49):19193-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0707962104. Epub 2007 Nov 26.


Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h index compared with other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h index.

MeSH terms

  • Achievement
  • Bibliometrics*
  • Mathematical Computing*
  • Prognosis
  • Publications*
  • Science*