The risk of false-positive histology according to the reason for colposcopy referral in cervical cancer screening: a blind revision of all histologic lesions found in the NTCC trial

Am J Clin Pathol. 2008 Jan;129(1):75-80. doi: 10.1309/EWYGWFRRM8798U5P.

Abstract

All cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) diagnoses identified during the New Technologies for Cervical Cancer trial (ISRCTN81678807) were blindly reviewed by 2 pathologists. Original diagnoses based on colposcopy-guided biopsies were compared with those made by the reviewers who had access to all clinical histologic samples (including postsurgical). Cases downgraded from CIN 2+ by the reviewers were considered indicative of unnecessary treatments. The analyses are presented according to the molecular (high-risk human papillomavirus [HPV]) and/or cytologic diagnosis used to refer the women for colposcopy. We reviewed 812 CIN 1 and 364 CIN 2 + diagnoses. The specificity of colposcopy-guided biopsy was 98% and the sensitivity, 84%. The probability of unnecessary treatment was 27% for women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance cytologic findings and 8% for women with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or worse, 10% for HPV+ and positive cytologic findings, and 16% for HPV+ alone. The positive predictive value of the first-level screening test was inversely associated with probability of a histologic false-positive result (P = .015). In screening, a low positive predictive value of the colposcopy-referring test may result in unnecessary treatments.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Colposcopy*
  • False Positive Reactions
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Mass Screening
  • Papillomavirus Infections / pathology
  • Referral and Consultation / statistics & numerical data*
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Factors
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Single-Blind Method
  • Uterine Cervical Dysplasia / diagnosis*
  • Uterine Cervical Dysplasia / surgery
  • Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / diagnosis*
  • Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / surgery
  • Vaginal Smears*

Associated data

  • ISRCTN/ISRCTN81678807