Predicting progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis: a 10-year multicenter study

Ann Neurol. 2008 Jun;63(6):790-3. doi: 10.1002/ana.21375.


Rates of progression vary widely in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. This multicenter study aimed to identify predictors of progression over 10 years. A total of 101 patients who had been imaged at baseline and 2 years were scored on the expanded disability status scale after 10 years. Ordinal logistic regression identified the following independent variables that predicted progression: male sex, shorter disease duration, and slower timed walk test at baseline (best overall predictor), and deterioration in expanded disability status scale score and reduction in brain volume over 2 years. These predictors of long-term disability provide some insight into disease progression.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Atrophy / pathology
  • Atrophy / physiopathology
  • Brain / pathology*
  • Brain / physiopathology
  • Disability Evaluation*
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Gait Disorders, Neurologic / diagnosis
  • Gait Disorders, Neurologic / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Magnetic Resonance Imaging
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive / diagnosis*
  • Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive / epidemiology*
  • Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive / physiopathology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Distribution
  • Spinal Cord / pathology*
  • Spinal Cord / physiopathology
  • Time Factors