What percentage of patients with newly diagnosed carcinoma of the prostate are candidates for surveillance? An analysis of the CaPSURE database

J Urol. 2008 Oct;180(4):1330-4; discussion 1334-5. doi: 10.1016/j.juro.2008.06.019. Epub 2008 Aug 15.


Purpose: Active surveillance is an option for men with clinically localized prostate cancer and may be suitable for those with very low risk disease. We determined the percentage of men in a large prostate cancer registry who met criteria predictive of latent prostate cancer. We also assessed the percentage of men meeting these criteria who chose surveillance.

Materials and methods: We conducted an observational study of 1,886 men diagnosed with clinically localized prostate cancer between 1999 and 2004 from the CaPSURE database. Outcomes were percent of men meeting Epstein surveillance criteria (prostate specific antigen less than 10 ng/ml, clinical T1 or T2a, prostate specific antigen density less than 0.15, fewer than 1 of 3 biopsy cores positive, and absence of Gleason pattern 4 and 5 on biopsy) and percent selecting surveillance stratified by risk group.

Results: Of 1,886 men with all 5 criteria documented 16.4% (310 of 1,886) met all 5 surveillance criteria and 9.0% (28 of 310) of men in this very low risk category actually chose surveillance compared with 4.3% (68 of 1,576) of patients in other risk groups (p <0.01). On multivariable analysis of the entire cohort older age was the only demographic predictor of surveillance. Being in the very low risk group was also a predictor of surveillance.

Conclusions: Of men presenting with localized prostate cancer 16% met the criteria for very low risk disease. However, only a small subset of eligible men chose active surveillance, suggesting that it may be underused in the management of very low risk prostate cancer.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adenocarcinoma / diagnosis
  • Adenocarcinoma / epidemiology
  • Adenocarcinoma / therapy*
  • Age Distribution
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Biopsy, Needle
  • Chi-Square Distribution
  • Humans
  • Immunohistochemistry
  • Incidence
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Monitoring, Physiologic / methods*
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / epidemiology
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / pathology*
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Observation / methods
  • Patient Selection
  • Prognosis
  • Prostate-Specific Antigen / blood*
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / diagnosis*
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / therapy*
  • Registries
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Survival Analysis
  • Treatment Outcome


  • Prostate-Specific Antigen