Validation of "prodromal" criteria to detect individuals at ultra high risk of psychosis: 2 year follow-up

Schizophr Res. 2008 Oct;105(1-3):10-7. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2008.07.012. Epub 2008 Sep 2.


Background: Identification of individuals "prodromal" for schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders relies on criteria that predict onset within a brief period. Previous trials and biological research have been predicated on the view that certain "ultra high risk" (UHR) criteria detect "the prodrome", but there is a need to test the validity of these criteria.

Aim: To assess the predictive validity of the UHR criteria in a clinical population.

Method: The presence of UHR criteria was determined in 292 help-seeking individuals. At 2 year follow-up the number of new cases of psychotic disorder was assessed.

Results: The criteria significantly predicted onset of psychotic disorder within 2 years. The transition rate of 16% was much lower than in initial cohorts (over 40%).

Conclusions: The predictive validity of UHR criteria depends on the sample to which they are applied. Although young help-seekers meeting these criteria are at greater risk of psychotic disorder than those who do not meet them, caution is needed in their management, since a high transition rate can no longer be assumed.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Cohort Studies
  • Comorbidity
  • Delusions / diagnosis
  • Delusions / epidemiology
  • Delusions / psychology
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Hallucinations / diagnosis
  • Hallucinations / epidemiology
  • Hallucinations / psychology
  • Humans
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Patient Acceptance of Health Care / psychology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Psychiatric Status Rating Scales / statistics & numerical data
  • Psychometrics
  • Psychotic Disorders / diagnosis*
  • Psychotic Disorders / epidemiology
  • Psychotic Disorders / psychology
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Factors
  • Schizophrenia / diagnosis*
  • Schizophrenia / epidemiology
  • Schizophrenic Psychology
  • Young Adult