Distal radius fractures are common injuries; however, identifying which factors are responsible for predicting outcomes remains an area of controversy. The purpose of this study was to define factors predictive of patient-reported pain and disability at 1 year in a prospective cohort of extra-articular distal radius fractures (n = 222). Data were collected at the initial visit and after 3, 6, and 12 months. The primary outcome was the 1-year patient-rated wrist evaluation (PRWE) score. The effect of baseline patient and injury characteristics on the 1-year PRWE score was assessed. Univariate and forward stepwise regression analyses both agreed that the most influential predictor of pain and disability at 1 year was injury compensation. The 1-year PRWE score was significantly higher for subjects involved with third-party claims (35.48) compared to those that were not involved in any claims (14.97), p = 0.006. The regression model found that three baseline factors - injury compensation, education, and other medical comorbidities - explained 16.4% of the variance in PRWE scores at 1 year. No injury characteristic, including the degree of initial fracture displacement, was found to significantly influence the 1-year PRWE score. This study has shown that baseline patient and injury characteristics play a small role in predicting 1-year patient-reported pain and disability in extra-articular distal radius fractures. Conceptual factors outside of this biomedical model should be investigated.