Multivariate modelling of infectious disease surveillance data

Stat Med. 2008 Dec 20;27(29):6250-67. doi: 10.1002/sim.3440.

Abstract

This paper describes a model-based approach to analyse multivariate time series data on counts of infectious diseases. It extends a method previously described in the literature to deal with possible dependence between disease counts from different pathogens. In a spatio-temporal context it is proposed to include additional information on global dispersal of the pathogen in the model. Two examples are given: the first describes an analysis of weekly influenza and meningococcal disease counts from Germany. The second gives an analysis of the spatio-temporal spread of influenza in the U.S.A., 1996-2006, using air traffic information. Maximum likelihood estimates in this non-standard model class are obtained using general optimization routines, which are integrated in the R package surveillance.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Biometry / methods*
  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Germany / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Meningococcal Infections / epidemiology
  • Models, Statistical
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Population Surveillance
  • United States / epidemiology