Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes
- PMID: 18810385
- DOI: 10.1007/s00125-008-1150-5
Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes
Abstract
Aims/hypothesis: With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025.
Methods: Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged >or=25 years).
Results: If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45-year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025.
Conclusions/interpretation: If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.
Similar articles
-
Burden of diabetes in Australia: life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy in adults with diabetes.Diabetologia. 2016 Jul;59(7):1437-1445. doi: 10.1007/s00125-016-3948-x. Epub 2016 Apr 14. Diabetologia. 2016. PMID: 27075450
-
Prevalence of disability in Australian elderly: Impact of trends in obesity and diabetes.Prev Med. 2016 Jan;82:105-10. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2015.11.003. Epub 2015 Nov 14. Prev Med. 2016. PMID: 26586499
-
Prevalence, incidence, risk factors and treatment of atrial fibrillation in Australia: The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) longitudinal, population cohort study.Int J Cardiol. 2016 Feb 15;205:127-132. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2015.12.013. Epub 2015 Dec 15. Int J Cardiol. 2016. PMID: 26730844
-
Projecting the impact of AIDS on mortality.AIDS. 1998;12 Suppl 1:S29-39. AIDS. 1998. PMID: 9677187 Review.
-
The road to success. Long-term prognosis for persons living with HIV in Denmark - time trends and risk factors.Dan Med J. 2016 Feb;63(2):B5210. Dan Med J. 2016. PMID: 26836803 Review.
Cited by
-
Effect of family history of diabetes and obesity status on lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in the Iranian population.J Glob Health. 2022 Aug 9;12:04068. doi: 10.7189/jogh.12.04068. J Glob Health. 2022. PMID: 35939397 Free PMC article.
-
Estimating lifetime risk of diabetes in the Chinese population.PLoS Med. 2022 Jul 21;19(7):e1004053. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004053. eCollection 2022 Jul. PLoS Med. 2022. PMID: 35862305 Free PMC article.
-
Lifetime risk of developing diabetes in Chinese people with normoglycemia or prediabetes: A modeling study.PLoS Med. 2022 Jul 21;19(7):e1004045. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004045. eCollection 2022 Jul. PLoS Med. 2022. PMID: 35862297 Free PMC article.
-
Trends in lifetime risk and years of potential life lost from diabetes in the United States, 1997-2018.PLoS One. 2022 May 24;17(5):e0268805. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268805. eCollection 2022. PLoS One. 2022. PMID: 35609056 Free PMC article.
-
Diabetes free life expectancy and years of life lost associated with type 2 diabetes: projected trends in Germany between 2015 and 2040.Popul Health Metr. 2021 Oct 11;19(1):38. doi: 10.1186/s12963-021-00266-z. Popul Health Metr. 2021. PMID: 34635124 Free PMC article.
References
Publication types
MeSH terms
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Medical
