Dynamics of dengue epidemics in urban contexts

Trop Med Int Health. 2008 Sep;13(9):1180-7. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2008.02124.x. Epub 2008 Aug 20.

Abstract

Dengue, similar to other arboviral diseases, exhibits complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Even at town or village level, individual-based spatially explicit models are required to correctly reproduce epidemic curves. This makes modelling at the regional level (province, country or continent) very difficult and cumbersome. We propose here a first step to build a hierarchized model by constructing a simple analytical expression which reproduces the model output from macroscopic parameters describing each 'village'. It also turns out to be a good approximation of real urban epidermic outbreaks. Subsequently, a regional model could be built by coupling these equations on a lattice.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Communicable Diseases, Emerging / epidemiology
  • Communicable Diseases, Emerging / transmission*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Demography
  • Dengue / epidemiology
  • Dengue / transmission*
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical
  • Nonlinear Dynamics*