Prediction of early readmission in medical inpatients using the Probability of Repeated Admission instrument

Nurs Res. Nov-Dec 2008;57(6):406-15. doi: 10.1097/NNR.0b013e31818c3e06.

Abstract

Background: In the absence of an instrument to predict risk of early readmission, examination of the well-validated probability of repeated admission (Pra) for this new purpose is indicated.

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine the use of the Pra in accurately identifying and predicting adult medical inpatients at risk of early readmission.

Methods: Over 20 months, 1,077 consecutively admitted medical patients were enrolled in this prospective cohort study at a Midwestern tertiary care medical center. Pra score values were calculated within 2 days of discharge. Databases at the index medical center and other institutions were queried to identify readmission within 41 days.

Results: Prevalence of readmission was 14% (confidence interval = 12.4%-15.6%). Pra score values ranged from .16 to .75. Indices to identify and predict readmission for a range of cut points were reported to minimize loss of information. The likelihood ratio for patients with a Pra score value > or = .53 was 1.67. Using a Pra cut point of > or = .45, readmission of patients with a high Pra was 2.3 times more likely than that of patients with a low Pra (p < .001, confidence interval = 1.63-3.27). Comparisons between cohorts indicated that differences existed with four of the eight variables used to calculate the Pra score: diabetes (p = .01), self-rated health status (p = .007), and number of doctor visits (p < .001) and hospitalizations (p < .001) in the past year.

Discussion: Within this heterogeneous sample, prediction of readmission using the Pra was better than chance. These findings may facilitate development of a better predictive model by combining select Pra variables with other variables associated with early readmission.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Female
  • Health Status
  • Humans
  • Inpatients / statistics & numerical data*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Mass Screening / methods*
  • Mass Screening / standards
  • Middle Aged
  • Midwestern United States / epidemiology
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Nursing Evaluation Research
  • Odds Ratio
  • Patient Discharge*
  • Patient Readmission / statistics & numerical data*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Probability
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment / methods*
  • Risk Assessment / standards
  • Young Adult