Community college and university smokers (N = 662) estimated their probability (0% to 100%) of remaining a smoker one and six months later and reported their confidence in their estimates. Smoking status was assessed at each time point. Analyses controlled for several correlates of both smoking status and probability estimates of remaining a smoker. Estimates of smoking status interacted with confidence to predict smoking status at one month, but only estimates predicted smoking status at six months. Findings suggest that: 1) personal estimate of future smoking status is a unique correlate of continued smoking; and 2) confidence in personal estimates is a strong moderator for short-term projections of smoking status.